Trending: Toilet Paper
- Kendal Ann
- May 6, 2020
- 5 min read
Updated: May 8, 2020
An item I never thought I would write about nor thought would be trending. Toilet paper, or the lack of it, has caused a shopping frenzy. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, people are panic buying more than ever.
Now that it is a couple of weeks removed from the initial toilet paper shortage crisis, is there still an issue with panic buying? Panic buying is caused by fear. Fear that something bad will happen. The most recent case of panic buying has been caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it has affected almost every country. People are panic buying pasta, rice, flour, canned goods, meat, and even toilet paper. All of which seem to be reasonable purchases in preparation for being forced into isolation.
It seems the rush of panic buying started in Hong Kong when the first post about shortages in supermarkets made its way onto social media on Feb 5th [1]. Just like the virus spread, the fear of being without basic necessities did too. Shortages have now been seen all over the world.
I think one major issue that has caused panic buying is the misconception of supply chains. This may be because people assumed that since travel and importing/exporting to and from China was now being banned the stock of toilet paper would be affected. Leading to the notion that almost everything on store shelves is from overseas. That is incorrect. For example, the largest manufacturer of toilet paper in Australia, Kimberly-Clark, is located in South Australia. The company makes Kleenex toilet paper and has stated production lines have been running 24hours a day to keep up with demand [1]. In the US, toilet paper manufacturers are also running 24/7 production lines [2].
If toilet paper manufacturers are located in major countries such as Australia and the United States, then why are we having issues? Tom Sellars, CEO of Sellars Absorbent Materials in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, explained that while production lines are running 24/7, the machines are at a fixed capacity [2]. There can be a huge spike in demand, but the machines cannot produce any more than they already are. These lingering issues are due to the fact that the panic buying and misinformation spread too quickly. A large part of society functions on the notion that if they need something they can just run to the shops, even if it means stopping by every day after work. While this is great for retailers and their profits, but what happened to having a stock of nonperishables and household supplies at home? The reliance on two-hour delivery and convenience shopping is a whole other conversation that should be investigated in relation to the coronavirus pandemic.
It is possible management teams of these toilet paper manufacturers are now debating on whether they should invest into additional machinery. But would that be necessary? Once demand lowers and stock levels catch up, the money spent on the installation, materials, and maintenance for additional machinery could potentially cause more harm than good. It is likely that customers will revert to the above-mentioned habits of convenience shopping. Increased production from additional machines could result in large amounts of excess stock and a potential for loss.
As someone who has worked in buying for a global retailer with warehouses around the world, I find the shortages particularly interesting, and I bet category buyers and assistant buyers are consistently being contacted about the lack of stock in stores. Most major retailers have a set amount of stock for items such as toilet paper in their warehouses. This is to prevent stock shortages and to limit the number of deliveries. Buyers do not have control over the majority of stock shortages. There are multiple reasons why a manufacturer may not be able to provide stock, i.e. delivery routes have been cut off, ingredient shortages, staff protests, pest infestation in warehouses, among others. While working in buying, I had a stock shortage for months on the number one bestseller item from the ‘meat snack’, or jerky, category. It was due to there being a lack of meat in the country. (I’m not a vegan, and I thought this was an uncomfortable idea).
Stock shortages can happen in any category for any item at any time.
Retailers are now increasing purchase orders on items that most likely have been put on an auto-replenishment system, where purchase orders are automatically cut and ordered once stock levels become too low. While retailers can place more orders, it does not speed up the delivery time. This seems to be a never-ending cycle, doesn’t it?
The toilet paper shortage could have never been predicted. Retailers were as prepared as they could be. Toilet paper is an item that is bought in bulk and stored in warehouses; however, there is a limit to the number of items that can be stored. Warehouse space is allocated per item. If the warehouse was full of toilet paper, then wouldn’t there be shortages on other everyday items? For this reason, retailers have placed buying restrictions on customers. It seems extreme, but it is probably the best way to handle the situation. By limiting the number of items a person can buy, stock lasts longer and more people can have access to in-demand items.
Now back to my first question, is there still an issue with panic buying now that it is May? I have seen shortages on shelves, but overall I think, at least in Australia, panic buying has calmed down. Retailers saw a large spike in sales for the category, but then saw a large fall once the stock ran out [3].
It will take a couple of months for stock levels to return to normal, and for sales figures to return to a constant rate.
I would be lying if I said I did not feel panicked while grocery shopping during the month of March, the peak of coronavirus panic buying. The week I felt the most scared was the last week I was working in a shopping center. I could just tell I was going to be stood down from my job. That next week I was. Without having to be at the shopping center for work, I did not know when I would go back (Note: I do not have a car and I take public transport). I was prepared to avoid grocery stores as long as possible to also avoid the virus. Buying a package of toilet paper seemed reasonable. I, luckily, did find some, but I only bought one package.
Did you find yourself panic buying? What is the most interesting thing you saw while shopping?
A fun sidebar: I took the picture of the "dunny" at the Uluru Camel Tour farm in January 2020. I wonder if they are facing toilet paper shortages.
Resources:
[1] What role did rumour play in Australia's toilet paper frenzy?
[2] Toilet paper makers: 'What we are dealing with here is uncharted'
[3] Flushing out the true cause of the global toilet paper shortage amid coronavirus pandemic
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